Publications

^* indicates that authors made equal contributions

Peer-reviewed papers

Ecology and environment predict spatially stratified risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds across Europe

Sarah Hayes*, Joe Hilton*, Joaquin Mould-Quevedo, Christl Donnelly, Matthew Baylis, Liam Brierley (2025) "Ecology and environment predict spatially stratified risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds across Europe." Sci Rep doi:10.1038/s41598-025-30651-9

A beta-Poisson model for infectious disease transmission

J Hilton and I Hall (2024). "A beta-Poisson model for infectious disease transmission."PLoS Comput Biol 20(2): e1011856. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011856

The role of vaccination and public awareness in medium-term forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom

Samuel P. C. Brand, Massimo Cavallaro, Fergus Cumming, Charlie Turner, Isaac Florence, Paula Blomquist, Joe Hilton, Laura M. Guzman-Rincon, Thomas House, D. James Nokes & Matt J. Keeling (2022). "The role of vaccination and public awareness in medium-term forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom." Nat Commun 14, 4100 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38816-8

A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hilton J, Riley H, Pellis L, Aziza R, Brand SPC., K. Kombe I, et al. (2022). "A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic." PLoS Comput Biol 18(9): e1010390. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010390

Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries

Parisi A, Brand SPC, Hilton J, Aziza R, Keeling MJ, Nokes DJ (2021). "Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries." PLoS Comput Biol 17(7): e1009090. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009090

The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study

Trystan Leng, Connor White, Joe Hilton, Adam Kucharski, Lorenzo Pellis, Helena Stage, Nicholas G. Davies, Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease 2019 nCoV Working Group, Matt J. Keeling, Stefan Flasche. (2020) "The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study." Wellcome Open Research 2021, 5:213. doi:/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16164.2

Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices

Hilton J , Keeling MJ. (2020) "Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices." PLOS Computational Biology 16(7): e1008031. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031

Incorporating household structure and demography into models of endemic disease

Hilton J , Keeling MJ. (2019) "Incorporating household structure and demography into models of endemic disease." J. R. Soc. Interface 16: 20190317. doi:/10.1098/rsif.2019.0317

Preprints

Forecasting the scale of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kenya

Samuel P. C. Brand, Rabia Aziza, Ivy K. Kombe, Charles N. Agoti, Joe Hilton , Kat S. Rock, Andrea Parisi, D. James Nokes, Matt J. Keeling, Edwine W. Barasa (2020) "Forecasting the scale of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kenya." medRXiv doi:/10.1101/2020.04.09.20059865

PhD thesis

Joe Hilton (2017). "Stochastic approaches to infectious disease in heterogeneous populations." PhD thesis, University of Warwick.